The Withdrawal Option

I'm not entirely wedded to withdrawal-as-policy, but it sounds better and better all the time.

William Saletan, writing in Slate, presents the best case for withdrawal I have yet to read:

In blood and money, it's fast becoming the most expensive welfare program in the history of the world. Like other welfare programs, it was a good idea when it started. Like other welfare programs, it has begun to overtax the treasury and the public. Like other welfare programs, it warps the behavior of its beneficiaries. But in one respect, it's unique. It's the one welfare program conservatives can't criticize or even recognize, because they're the ones running it.

...Setting a deadline for withdrawal of those troops "would send the wrong message to the Iraqis, who need to know that America will not leave before the job is done," Bush said tonight. But 45 seconds later, responding to calls for a troop increase, he cautioned, "Sending more Americans would undermine our strategy of encouraging Iraqis to take the lead in this fight." Which is it, Mr. President? Does our military presence encourage Iraqi self-sufficiency or weaken it?

I understand why Bush doesn't want to talk about withdrawal. He knows terrorists feed on fear and weakness. He knows the surest way to lose this war is to think we've lost it. He sees it not as a story that's been written but as a story we're still writing. That's why he appealed tonight to our virtues: courage, steadfastness, perseverance, resolve. He doesn't believe in objective impossibility. He believes in free will. And he's right.

But ultimately, this isn't our story. It's the Iraqis' story. They have to write it, and they have to start by drafting a constitution in six weeks. If they think Uncle Sam will prop them up till the job is done, the job will never get done. That's what conservatives used to understand about big government, before they started running it.

One of the many problems with Iraq remains that we have not established clear goals for ourselves, something that Bush used to think important back when he was criticizing Clinton for not having an exit plan from Kosovo. We have to ask ourselves: what are we willing to accept as victory? Every terrorist dead? Even if that were feasible, in the sense that continued fighting did not aid recruitment by the insurgency, we might be at that for decades. A stable government? We have to remember that less than a hundred years after declaring independence, America was fighting the bloodiest war in its history - against itself. And, last time I checked, Iraq had a democratically elected government - it's just waiting on a constitution. Oh yeah, and an army.

But Saletan, and some others, are specifically talking about our presence in Iraq as an impediment to achieving our goals.

In other words, get your act together, Iraq, or you're screwed in a way you can't possibly imagine.

Again, I'm not talking about immediate withdrawal. That would be bad. But Kevin Drum has some thoughts:

The constitution is supposed be put up for a vote on October 15. Let's announce that the second round of troop withdrawals will commence on November 15.

Elections for a government under the new constitution are supposed to be held on December 15. Let's announce that the third round of withdrawals will begin on January 15, 2006. After that, withdrawals will continue in an orderly way until the coalition presence is completely gone.

If the Iraqis ask for an extension, as the transitional law allows them to do, we should agree to push all these dates forward by an additional month. This sends a clear message: make the deals you need to make. Form a government. Get your troops trained. Because by the end of 2006, after nearly four years of war and occupation, coalition troops will be gone.

This doesn't mean the end of American help. Postwar aid has proven crucial to promoting stability and democracy in the aftermath of past conflicts, so we have every reason to be generous in providing reconstruction assistance of all kinds to the Iraqis. But it's time to let them know in a credible way that we aren't going to be there forever. Maybe that's just the motivation they need.

I approve. We have already started the process (hopefully) of splitting the Sunni nationalist element of the insurgency, which we can co-opt into the political process, from the jihadist element, which we're going to have to continue fighting.

This isn't running away. This is tough love.